Federal Reserve V.P. To Discuss Economy at Nov. 19 GABB Meeting
Rebecca Gunn, Vice President and Regional Executive of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, will speak about economic issues during the Tuesday, Nov. 19, meeting of the Georgia Association of Business Brokers. The GABB is the state’s largest association of professionals dedicated to buying and selling businesses and franchises.
The GABB meets at the Georgia Association of Realtors at 6065 Barfield Road, Sandy Springs, GA, 30328, and the meeting will last from 10:30 a.m. to noon preceded by a free networking session at 9:45 a.m. GABB Affiliate Bob Smith, a health and life insurance advisor for North American Health Plans, will sponsor breakfast. GABB meetings are free and open to the public; guests should register at the form below.
In Ms. Gunn’s role at the Federal Reserve, she provides strategic support for the Regional Economic Information Network throughout Georgia, working with other regional executives to provide targeted economic intelligence. She also provides support for public outreach, economic education, and corporate citizenship.
Since 2013, Ms. Gunn has served as assistant vice president and corporate secretary as well as assistant to the president and first vice president. In this role she oversaw governance, planning, reporting, and administrative support for the long-term plans regarding director recruiting across the District. She also provided support to the Bank’s Board of Directors’ Search Committee for the Atlanta Bank presidential search process.
Ms. Gunn joined the Atlanta Fed in 1996 as an analyst in the planning and control department. She was promoted to supervisor shortly afterward and then to senior auditor. In 2005, she transferred to the Retail Payments Office, where she held positions of increasing responsibility, including financial product coordinator and portfolio manager. In 2011, she joined the Human Resources department as a business liaison providing strategic support and guidance to business areas throughout the Bank.
A native of Birmingham, Alabama, Ms. Gunn earned a bachelor’s degree in management from the Georgia Institute of Technology. She is the Atlanta Community Group Leader for the Marfan Foundation and a member of the Foundation’s Patient & Program Services Committee. She also serves on the Finance Committee of Camp Twin Lakes.
The GABB is the state’s largest and oldest association of professionals who specialize in brokering the purchase and sale of businesses and franchises. Broker members help owners determine the asking price of their business, create marketing plans and strategies for selling their business, identify and qualify buyers, and have the knowledge, experience and skills needed to help maintain the confidential nature of the process. The professionals of GABB relentlessly pursue professional development so they can provide superior, ethical services for all customers and clients. Affiliate members include bankers, lawyers, appraisers, insurers and other professionals who work closely with brokers to help owners and buyers get to the closing table.
For more information about GABB, please contact GABB President Dean Burnette at 912-247-3209 or dean@b3brokers.com, or GABB Executive Director Diane Loupe at diane@gabb.org or 404-374-3990.
If you are not a GABB member and wish to attend the meeting, please fill out this form. GABB meetings are free and open to the public.
Read MoreGeorgia Tops Business Ranking for Seventh Straight Year
AUGUSTA, Ga. — Georgia’s business climate has been named No. 1 in the nation by Site Selection Magazine, an internationally circulated business publication covering corporate real estate and economic development, for the seventh year in a row. Georgia is the only state that has received the distinction seven consecutive times in the history of Site Selection’s rankings.
“I am incredibly proud that Georgia has received the No. 1 ranking from Site Selection for the seventh year in a row,” said Governor Brian Kemp, who made the historic announcement at the Georgia Cyber Center in Augusta, Georgia.
Site Selection releases its Top State Business Climate rankings each November. The rankings are 50 percent based on objective criteria and 50 percent on the input received from a survey of independent site location experts who are asked to rank and explain their choice.
“Our readers are keenly interested in our annual state business climate ranking, because they seek locations with the greatest prospects for success,” said Mark Arend, editor-in-chief of Site Selection. “Georgia’s seventh consecutive Top State Business Climate win reminds them that a Georgia location will contribute to their productivity and profitability long term.”
Governor Kemp said Georgia “will continue raising the bar and working with our economic development partners in the public and private sectors to ensure that Georgia stays the best place in the nation to live, work, and raise a family.”
“The nation’s leading site consultants see opportunity for growth across our state,” Kemp said. “Our top-ranked workforce development initiatives – combined with a conservative, pro-business policy approach, world-class higher education system, and a logistics network that puts the global economy within arm’s reach – make Georgia a top competitor for investment from businesses large and small – across the country and around the world.”
Georgia has long received recognition from leading companies and site consultants for its attractive business climate. The state’s workforce training program, Georgia Quick Start, is the top-ranked program in the United States. Logistics hubs like the Port of Savannah and Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport connect businesses to their consumers far and wide, and the state’s pro-business policies make Georgia a competitive option for companies looking to locate or expand. In Fiscal Year 2019 alone, the Georgia Department of Economic Development supported the creation of nearly 29,000 new jobs through the location of 332 projects, 74 percent of which were located outside of metro Atlanta.
“We are thrilled that Georgia’s business climate has once again been named No. 1 by Site Selection,” said GDEcD Commissioner Pat Wilson. “Under Governor Kemp’s leadership, our partnership approach to economic development has enabled us to maintain a competitive edge in attracting new business and expanding our existing industries.
“Our world-class team at the Georgia Department of Economic Development is proud to work with our economic development partners throughout the state to make record-breaking achievements like this possible. We look forward to joining with Governor Kemp to continue spreading hope and creating opportunities for all Georgians in the years to come.”
Site Selection Magazine joins Area Development Magazine in naming Georgia the top state for business for 2019 – the seventh and sixth straight year, respectively, that both publications have awarded Georgia the ranking.
Read MoreGeorgia Named Top State for Business
Georgia has been named the “Top State for Business” by Area Development, a leading publication covering corporate site selection and relocation, for the sixth year in a row, according to Governor Brian P. Kemp. The results are determined by the publication’s poll of site consultants.
“I am exceptionally proud that Georgia has once again been named the Top State for Business by Area Development,” said Gov. Kemp. “This announcement serves as a powerful testament to what we all know to be true: Georgia is the best place to live, work, and raise a family. Our efforts to cut red tape and ensure our business environment leads the nation continue to lure world-class companies to the Peach State from every corner of the map.
“Our world-class workforce is a direct result of our top-ranking colleges and universities, and Georgia Quick Start, the best workforce development program in the nation. The state’s innovative and comprehensive logistics network makes Georgia a gateway to the global economy by land, air, and sea.
Area Development’s 2019 Top States for Doing Business results reflect the rankings that states receive based on weighted scores in the following twelve categories: overall cost of doing business, corporate tax environment, business incentives programs, access to capital and project funding, competitive labor environment, shovel-ready sites program, cooperative and responsive state government, favorable general regulatory environment, speed of permitting, favorable utility rates, leading workforce development programs, and most improved economic development policies.
“The 10th Annual Best States for Doing Business rankings are drawn from our editor’s poll of leading site location, supply chain, 3PL, real estate, and corporate business consultants maintained in our proprietary consultant database,” said Area Development publisher and president, Dennis J. Shea. “We poll those consultants who are actively responsible for guiding scores of corporate site location project decisions, billions of dollars in capex, millions of square feet in new construction, and most importantly, creating thousands of new jobs across all fifty states. For the sixth consecutive year, Georgia ranked No. 1 overall in Area Development’s highly regarded annual Best States for Doing Business poll, including top rankings in four of the twelve critical categories measured.”
Along with the Top State ranking, Georgia was ranked No. 1 in cooperative and responsive state government, leading workforce development programs, competitive labor environment, and speed of permitting.
“We are honored to receive the title of Top State for Business for the sixth year in a row,” said Georgia Department of Economic Development Commissioner Pat Wilson. “Each day, our team is out on the front lines working with companies to spread the good news of Georgia’s top-ranked business climate.” Wilson said “Whether it is our logistics infrastructure, workforce, or pro-business climate, there are so many factors that play into an honor like this one, and none of it would be possible without the tremendous support we have from our economic development partners in every community throughout Georgia.”
Gov. Kemp said his “administration is committed to building our state’s economic development toolbox so that we continue to attract leading companies in manufacturing, FinTech, information technology, and other industries ready to invest in a state that values their business and positive impact on local communities.”
Read MoreShocks Put Economy on Lowered Growth Path, Despite Expected Federal Reserve Cuts
ATLANTA–Trade tensions, a reduction in business investment and an earlier than usual presidential election swoon are contributing to a lowered growth path for 2020-21, according to Rajeev Dhawan of the Economic Forecasting Center at Georgia State University’s Robinson College of Business.
“Economic growth will take an oscillatory path, known as transition economics, to reach this lower level,” Dhawan wrote in his “Forecast of the Nation,” released Aug. 28, 2019.
“There is never a single reason for a downgrade, but the chief culprit for this one and its zigzag is the evolution of business investment from mid-2018 until now,” Dhawan said. “Investment contractions are a bad sign for future growth unless there are mitigating circumstances.”
One such mitigating circumstance affecting equipment investment was the March grounding of Boeing’s 737 MAX, which has spread downstream to suppliers such as General Electric (engines) and numerous parts makers across the country.
“This investment category will rebound at some point, but don’t count on help from those parked planes before early next year,” Dhawan said.
Also in retreat: investment spending on structures (commercial buildings, mining and fracking wells) dropped 10.6 percent in the second quarter of the year.
“The commercial sector seems to be pulling back on its building desire, despite good consumer spending,” Dhawan said. “The reason is the future seems more uncertain today than a year ago, when tariffs were a negotiating ploy and not a reality, as they are now.”
As for fracking, low oil prices are keeping well below the breakeven price per barrel, which Dhawan attributes to lowered demand from China.
“It seems unlikely that U.S.-Chinese trade tensions will ratchet down anytime soon,” he said. “And corporations, with their globally integrated supply chains, are spooked by the tit-for-tat tariff game. Investment is not expected to rebound to its mid-2018 high following the December 2017 tax cuts.”
Dhawan expects the Federal Reserve will cut rates in September, and then pause to observe concrete evidence of the anticipated growth slowdown. He then expects the Fed will decrease rates again in December, leading to a limited boost in home refinancing activity.
“A sharp drop in the 10-year bond rate since the Fed’s rate cut of July 31 is mostly due to global capital seeking a safe haven,” Dhawan said. “What cannot be forecast is when this fear-motivated flight to safety will end. If the move to 10-year bonds persists it will further depress the growth trajectory and keep the yield curve inverted longer, which would require deeper (emergency) rate cuts by the Fed.”
Highlights from the Economic Forecasting Center’s National Report
- Overall GDP growth will be 2.3 percent in 2019, 1.7 percent in 2020 and 2.0 percent in 2021.
- Investment growth will be 2.9 percent in 2019, 1.7 percent in 2020 and then rise to 3.2 percent in 2021. Monthly job gains will moderate to 153,000 in 2019, drop to 118,600 in 2020 and gain 116,900 new monthly jobs in 2021.
- Housing starts will average 1.225 million in 2019, 1.228 million in 2020 and then increase to 1.265 million in 2021. Vehicle sales will average 16.7 million in 2019, 15.9 million in 2020 and 16.0 million in 2021.
- The 10-year bond rate will average 2.1 percent in 2019, 2.2 percent in 2020 and rise to 2.5 percent in 2021.
- percent in 2019, decline 6.0 percent in 2020 and fall another 3.0 percent in 2021.
Global Economic Woes Contribute to Continued Economic Moderation in Georgia
ATLANTA–Stuttering global growth and escalating trade tiffs that are affecting national economic prospects are also being felt in Georgia across many employment sectors, according to Rajeev Dhawan of the Economic Forecasting Center at Georgia State University’s Robinson College of Business.
In his quarterly “Forecast of Georgia and Atlanta,” Dhawan wrote that he expects two Federal Reserve rate cuts before 2019 ends, asking, “Will these extra cuts help us negate the fallout from our trade spats? And what relief will it provide at the state and Atlanta metro levels?”
The forecaster’s answer to these questions is mixed. Yes, lower rates should help with interest-sensitive sectors such as home refinancing, vehicle sales and small business loans.
“But, these rate cuts cannot overcome the hesitation of big corporations to undertake the capital expansions that determine future job growth,” said Dhawan in the report released Aug. 28, 2019. “These firms are global in scope and dependent on external markets for a big proportion of their revenues.”
A case in point is Delta Air Lines. The state’s largest corporate employer collects 30 percent of its passenger revenue from international operations. In the second quarter of 2019, its global sector grew by 5.2 percent, compared to 8.7 percent for the same period in 2018.
The Port of Savannah, another transportation crown jewel, is largely responsible for driving the economic growth of the Savannah metro area. In mid-2018, Savannah’s job growth was 2.7 percent, outpacing the state’s job growth rate of 1.9 percent when global trade volumes were good. But by June 2019, Savannah’s growth rate dropped to 1.2 percent, putting it below the state’s 1.7 percent growth as the global economy cooled.
“Globally connected sectors and areas grow higher than average when the world economy is booming, but they decelerate sharply when the tide turns,” Dhawan said.
The global health of Fortune 500 companies headquartered in Georgia determines the hiring of managerial jobs in Atlanta, which has a multiplier effect on downstream sectors.
Domestic demand sectors are performing better than globally connected ones, particularly hospitality (historically high occupancy rates), education (growing due to population growth), healthcare (overall population growth and aging) and construction (new hotel, office and apartment developments).
“Fed rate cuts will alleviate the pain somewhat, and relatively clear skies will emerge, but without a rainbow,” said Dhawan.
Highlights from the Economic Forecasting Center’s Report for Georgia and Atlanta
- Georgia employment will add 65,200 jobs (11,400 premium jobs) in 2019, gain 53,500 jobs (9,400 premium) in 2020 and increase by 48,200 (9,700 premium) in 2021.
- Nominal personal income will grow 4.3 percent in 2019, then increase by a better 5.1 percent in 2020 and 2021.
- Atlanta will add 45,300 jobs (7,900 premium positions) in 2019, moderate to 37,900 jobs (7,200 premium) in 2020 and 35,600 jobs (7,300 premium) in 2021.
- Atlanta housing permitting activity will fall 18.9