Headwinds Buffet Georgia’s Catalyst Sectors, Dampening Job Growth Outlook
ATLANTA–One-off factors, combined with an ongoing global slowdown, the U.S.-Chinese trade spat and a deteriorating domestic investment climate have resulted in unusually large deviations from average monthly job gain expectations in Georgia, according to Rajeev Dhawan of the Economic Forecasting Center at Georgia State University’s Robinson College of Business.
“Monthly job creation numbers always fluctuate, just like monthly rainfall totals, and rarely is there a month that hits the so-called average mark. However, it’s rare to see three negative growth months out of nine, without a special reason,” Dhawan wrote in his quarterly “Forecast of Georgia and Atlanta,” released today (Nov. 20, 2019).
How big were the fluctuations? Georgia gained 23,200 jobs in the first quarter of 2019, followed by only 300 job gains in the second quarter, then roared back with 29,100 jobs in the third quarter of the year.
“Three marquee sporting events between December 2018 and February 2019 – the MLS Championship (Dec. 8), the Chick-Fil-A Bowl (Dec. 19) and Super Bowl LIII (Feb. 3) – delivered a positive hospitality boost to Atlanta,” Dhawan said.
From October 2018 to January 2019, Georgia added 39,100 jobs – a 33 percent boost to the 2018’s monthly jobs creation pace of 7,400 – with 20,800 of those gains in retail trade, hospitality and administrative services (proxy for temporary jobs). These service sectors account for 30 percent of the state’s employment base, but they produced 53 percent of job additions during those four months.
When the events were over, the three sectors shed 6,200 of the 9,700 jobs lost in March and April, explaining the ups and downs of job growth over the first two quarters.
The forecaster examined premium job creation in the state’s catalyst sectors – corporate, technology and manufacturing. The three sectors account for roughly one quarter of Georgia’s employment base, pay well above the median wage, and lead to demand for products and services, resulting in jobs in supporting sectors. One support sector, transportation, warehousing and utilities, has added only 700 jobs in the first three quarters of 2019 despite the growth of e-commerce.
“But what about future prospects for transportation? E-commerce is not the entire story,” Dhawan said. “The health of the sector is also tied to activities at the port of Savannah and its network of warehouses. A slowing growth rate of tonnage generated at the port and a record high proportion of empty containers on outbound ships means fewer trips from warehouses to the port, less demand for storage and fewer jobs.”
Savannah exports are mostly manufactured products – cars from the Kia plant in LaGrange, paper and pulp products from Albany-area mills, automotive machinery from Athens and Gainesville, and industrial carpeting from Dalton.
“If the global slowdown, coupled with a strong dollar, reduces demand for Georgia exports, we will produce less, which will show up in the performance of the state’s manufacturing sector and employment growth in the Savannah metro area,” said Dhawan. “The global growth climate is so bad that Savannah-based Gulfstream announced it will lay off 362 people at its main facility in coming weeks. Loss of these high paying jobs is never good for the metro area where they happen.”
With the current economic expansion in its 10th year, the business cycle is maturing, and job quality is deteriorating, according to the forecaster. For example, in 2014 Georgia added 128,100 jobs of which 40 percent were in high-paying catalyst sectors. In 2018, when Georgia added 89,000 jobs the proportion of catalyst jobs had plunged to 12 percent.
According to Dhawan, the chance of an upsurge in total job creation is low for the coming six to eight quarters.
“Chalk it up to the ongoing global slowdown in Europe and Latin America, coupled with our trade spat with China and a weakening domestic investment climate. Global and domestic headwinds are buffeting Georgia’s catalyst sectors, making for an overall lower future growth path.”
Highlights from the Economic Forecasting Center’s Report for Georgia and Atlanta
- Georgia employment will add 72,200 jobs (13,200 premium jobs) in 2019, gain 49,700 jobs (8,900 premium) in 2020 and increase by 45,900 (8,900 premium) in 2021.
- Nominal personal income will grow 5.0 percent in 2019, 4.9 percent in 2020 and 4.7 percent in 2021.
- Atlanta will add 51,200 jobs (10,000 premium positions) in 2019, moderate to 38,100 jobs (7,800 premium) in 2020 and 34,300 jobs (7,300 premium) in 2021.
- Atlanta housing permitting activity will fall 16.4 percent in 2019, decline 6.9 percent in 2020 and fall another 5.5 percent in 2021.
Georgia State Forecaster Says Global Uncertainty Is Inducing Investment Malaise
ATLANTA–A maturing business cycle, the ongoing global slowdown, and the U.S.-China trade spat are fostering a deteriorating business investment climate, and a slowdown in job growth has made consumers wary of spending, according to Rajeev Dhawan of the Economic Forecasting Center at Georgia State University’s Robinson College of Business.
“Investments are always a risky bet. And as the amount of uncertainty rises, investment spending is the first to suffer,” Dhawan wrote in his “Forecast of the Nation,” released today (Nov. 20, 2019).
The Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, at its highest level since 1997, has been extremely elevated for the past 18 months. Dhawan attributes the uncertainty in no small part to the imposition of tariffs by the world’s two largest trading partners, the U.S. and China, on each other’s exports.
“Although there are other trade skirmishes [between Japan and Korea, the ongoing Brexit saga, the Catalonia secession in Spain, and even the September missile attack on Saudi oil facilities] the U.S.-China trade spat takes center stage.”
The forecaster posits that as management of U.S.-based global companies consider moving factories out of China and undoing supply chains they spent decades establishing, “their primary focus is on the vexing issue of building new supply chains and not on expanding existing business capacity, i.e. hiring.”
The fallout is readily apparent in investment growth rates. Business investment declined 3.0 percent in the third quarter of 2019, after dropping 1.0 in the previous quarter, which was a dramatic contrast to the first half of 2018, when investment grew 8.4 percent following the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017. Two other factors, or shocks, contributed to weak investment – reduced fracking investment due to falling oil prices, and the impact of the March 2019 grounding of the Boeing 737 MAX on high tech manufacturing. Looking forward, the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Index is below 50, signaling future contraction in the industrial sector.
As for consumer confidence, a 10-point market drop since Aug. 2019 could signal a consumption growth slowdown. The last three Federal Reserve rate cuts should have boosted consumption by lowering interest rates for car loans and on new or refinanced mortgages. However, Oct. 2019 vehicle sales of 16.5 million units were much lower than the average 17.0 million units sold the previous three months.
Damage from the last few quarters of deficient investment growth will be evident in subpar GDP growth, less than 1.5 percent on average in the coming quarters. And Dhawan characterizes business investment equipment growth as “nonexistent” until Boeing’s woes end in mid-2020.
“As growth drops well below the 1.8 percent growth potential, the Fed will be forced to cut rates several times in early 2020, most likely during the March and June meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee,” Dhawan said.
Even with these cuts, Dhawan anticipates GDP growth to drop to 2.3 percent in 2019, then decline to 1.5 percent in 2020 and improve to 1.8 percent in 2021.
“The election will be over by 2021, hopefully, and no matter who is in the White House, businesses can plan again with somewhat more certainty than at present,” Dhawan said.
Highlights from the Economic Forecasting Center’s National Report
- Overall GDP growth will be 2.3 percent in 2019, 1.5 percent in 2020 and 1.8 percent in 2021.
- Investment growth will be 2.2 percent in 2019, 0.3 percent in 2020 and 2.5 percent in 2021. Monthly job gains will be 165,300 in 2019, drop to 90,600 in 2020 and rise to 94,700 in 2021.
- Housing starts will average 1.256 million in 2019, 1.215 million in 2020 and 1.220 million in 2021. Vehicle sales will average 16.9 million in 2019, 15.8 million in 2020 and 15.5 million in 2021.
- The 10-year bond rate will average 2.1 percent in 2019 and 2020, then rise to 2.7 percent in 2021.
Federal Reserve V.P. To Discuss Economy at Nov. 19 GABB Meeting
Rebecca L. Gunn (Becky) is vice president and regional executive of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
Rebecca Gunn, Vice President and Regional Executive of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, will speak about economic issues during the Tuesday, Nov. 19, meeting of the Georgia Association of Business Brokers. The GABB is the state’s largest association of professionals dedicated to buying and selling businesses and franchises.
The GABB meets at the Georgia Association of Realtors at 6065 Barfield Road, Sandy Springs, GA, 30328, and the meeting will last from 10:30 a.m. to noon preceded by a free networking session at 9:45 a.m. GABB Affiliate Bob Smith, a health and life insurance advisor for North American Health Plans, will sponsor breakfast. GABB meetings are free and open to the public; guests should register at the form below.
In Ms. Gunn’s role at the Federal Reserve, she provides strategic support for the Regional Economic Information Network throughout Georgia, working with other regional executives to provide targeted economic intelligence. She also provides support for public outreach, economic education, and corporate citizenship.
Since 2013, Ms. Gunn has served as assistant vice president and corporate secretary as well as assistant to the president and first vice president. In this role she oversaw governance, planning, reporting, and administrative support for the long-term plans regarding director recruiting across the District. She also provided support to the Bank’s Board of Directors’ Search Committee for the Atlanta Bank presidential search process.
Ms. Gunn joined the Atlanta Fed in 1996 as an analyst in the planning and control department. She was promoted to supervisor shortly afterward and then to senior auditor. In 2005, she transferred to the Retail Payments Office, where she held positions of increasing responsibility, including financial product coordinator and portfolio manager. In 2011, she joined the Human Resources department as a business liaison providing strategic support and guidance to business areas throughout the Bank.
A native of Birmingham, Alabama, Ms. Gunn earned a bachelor’s degree in management from the Georgia Institute of Technology. She is the Atlanta Community Group Leader for the Marfan Foundation and a member of the Foundation’s Patient & Program Services Committee. She also serves on the Finance Committee of Camp Twin Lakes.
The GABB is the state’s largest and oldest association of professionals who specialize in brokering the purchase and sale of businesses and franchises. Broker members help owners determine the asking price of their business, create marketing plans and strategies for selling their business, identify and qualify buyers, and have the knowledge, experience and skills needed to help maintain the confidential nature of the process. The professionals of GABB relentlessly pursue professional development so they can provide superior, ethical services for all customers and clients. Affiliate members include bankers, lawyers, appraisers, insurers and other professionals who work closely with brokers to help owners and buyers get to the closing table.
For more information about GABB, please contact GABB President Dean Burnette at 912-247-3209 or dean@b3brokers.com, or GABB Executive Director Diane Loupe at diane@gabb.org or 404-374-3990.
If you are not a GABB member and wish to attend the meeting, please fill out this form. GABB meetings are free and open to the public.
Georgia Tops Business Ranking for Seventh Straight Year
AUGUSTA, Ga. — Georgia’s business climate has been named No. 1 in the nation by Site Selection Magazine, an internationally circulated business publication covering corporate real estate and economic development, for the seventh year in a row. Georgia is the only state that has received the distinction seven consecutive times in the history of Site Selection’s rankings.
“I am incredibly proud that Georgia has received the No. 1 ranking from Site Selection for the seventh year in a row,” said Governor Brian Kemp, who made the historic announcement at the Georgia Cyber Center in Augusta, Georgia.
Site Selection releases its Top State Business Climate rankings each November. The rankings are 50 percent based on objective criteria and 50 percent on the input received from a survey of independent site location experts who are asked to rank and explain their choice.
“Our readers are keenly interested in our annual state business climate ranking, because they seek locations with the greatest prospects for success,” said Mark Arend, editor-in-chief of Site Selection. “Georgia’s seventh consecutive Top State Business Climate win reminds them that a Georgia location will contribute to their productivity and profitability long term.”
Governor Kemp said Georgia “will continue raising the bar and working with our economic development partners in the public and private sectors to ensure that Georgia stays the best place in the nation to live, work, and raise a family.”
“The nation’s leading site consultants see opportunity for growth across our state,” Kemp said. “Our top-ranked workforce development initiatives – combined with a conservative, pro-business policy approach, world-class higher education system, and a logistics network that puts the global economy within arm’s reach – make Georgia a top competitor for investment from businesses large and small – across the country and around the world.”
Georgia has long received recognition from leading companies and site consultants for its attractive business climate. The state’s workforce training program, Georgia Quick Start, is the top-ranked program in the United States. Logistics hubs like the Port of Savannah and Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport connect businesses to their consumers far and wide, and the state’s pro-business policies make Georgia a competitive option for companies looking to locate or expand. In Fiscal Year 2019 alone, the Georgia Department of Economic Development supported the creation of nearly 29,000 new jobs through the location of 332 projects, 74 percent of which were located outside of metro Atlanta.
“We are thrilled that Georgia’s business climate has once again been named No. 1 by Site Selection,” said GDEcD Commissioner Pat Wilson. “Under Governor Kemp’s leadership, our partnership approach to economic development has enabled us to maintain a competitive edge in attracting new business and expanding our existing industries.
“Our world-class team at the Georgia Department of Economic Development is proud to work with our economic development partners throughout the state to make record-breaking achievements like this possible. We look forward to joining with Governor Kemp to continue spreading hope and creating opportunities for all Georgians in the years to come.”
Site Selection Magazine joins Area Development Magazine in naming Georgia the top state for business for 2019 – the seventh and sixth straight year, respectively, that both publications have awarded Georgia the ranking.
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Georgia Named Top State for Business
Georgia has been named the “Top State for Business” by Area Development, a leading publication covering corporate site selection and relocation, for the sixth year in a row, according to Governor Brian P. Kemp. The results are determined by the publication’s poll of site consultants.
“I am exceptionally proud that Georgia has once again been named the Top State for Business by Area Development,” said Gov. Kemp. “This announcement serves as a powerful testament to what we all know to be true: Georgia is the best place to live, work, and raise a family. Our efforts to cut red tape and ensure our business environment leads the nation continue to lure world-class companies to the Peach State from every corner of the map.
“Our world-class workforce is a direct result of our top-ranking colleges and universities, and Georgia Quick Start, the best workforce development program in the nation. The state’s innovative and comprehensive logistics network makes Georgia a gateway to the global economy by land, air, and sea.
Area Development’s 2019 Top States for Doing Business results reflect the rankings that states receive based on weighted scores in the following twelve categories: overall cost of doing business, corporate tax environment, business incentives programs, access to capital and project funding, competitive labor environment, shovel-ready sites program, cooperative and responsive state government, favorable general regulatory environment, speed of permitting, favorable utility rates, leading workforce development programs, and most improved economic development policies.
“The 10th Annual Best States for Doing Business rankings are drawn from our editor’s poll of leading site location, supply chain, 3PL, real estate, and corporate business consultants maintained in our proprietary consultant database,” said Area Development publisher and president, Dennis J. Shea. “We poll those consultants who are actively responsible for guiding scores of corporate site location project decisions, billions of dollars in capex, millions of square feet in new construction, and most importantly, creating thousands of new jobs across all fifty states. For the sixth consecutive year, Georgia ranked No. 1 overall in Area Development’s highly regarded annual Best States for Doing Business poll, including top rankings in four of the twelve critical categories measured.”
Along with the Top State ranking, Georgia was ranked No. 1 in cooperative and responsive state government, leading workforce development programs, competitive labor environment, and speed of permitting.
“We are honored to receive the title of Top State for Business for the sixth year in a row,” said Georgia Department of Economic Development Commissioner Pat Wilson. “Each day, our team is out on the front lines working with companies to spread the good news of Georgia’s top-ranked business climate.” Wilson said “Whether it is our logistics infrastructure, workforce, or pro-business climate, there are so many factors that play into an honor like this one, and none of it would be possible without the tremendous support we have from our economic development partners in every community throughout Georgia.”
Gov. Kemp said his “administration is committed to building our state’s economic development toolbox so that we continue to attract leading companies in manufacturing, FinTech, information technology, and other industries ready to invest in a state that values their business and positive impact on local communities.”
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