ATLANTA–One-off factors, combined with an ongoing global slowdown, the U.S.-Chinese trade spat and a deteriorating domestic investment climate have resulted in unusually large deviations from average monthly job gain expectations in Georgia, according to Rajeev Dhawan of the Economic Forecasting Center at Georgia State University’s Robinson College of Business.
“Monthly job creation numbers always fluctuate, just like monthly rainfall totals, and rarely is there a month that hits the so-called average mark. However, it’s rare to see three negative growth months out of nine, without a special reason,” Dhawan wrote in his quarterly “Forecast of Georgia and Atlanta,” released today (Nov. 20, 2019).
How big were the fluctuations? Georgia gained 23,200 jobs in the first quarter of 2019, followed by only 300 job gains in the second quarter, then roared back with 29,100 jobs in the third quarter of the year.
“Three marquee sporting events between December 2018 and February 2019 – the MLS Championship (Dec. 8), the Chick-Fil-A Bowl (Dec. 19) and Super Bowl LIII (Feb. 3) – delivered a positive hospitality boost to Atlanta,” Dhawan said.
From October 2018 to January 2019, Georgia added 39,100 jobs – a 33 percent boost to the 2018’s monthly jobs creation pace of 7,400 – with 20,800 of those gains in retail trade, hospitality and administrative services (proxy for temporary jobs). These service sectors account for 30 percent of the state’s employment base, but they produced 53 percent of job additions during those four months.
When the events were over, the three sectors shed 6,200 of the 9,700 jobs lost in March and April, explaining the ups and downs of job growth over the first two quarters.
The forecaster examined premium job creation in the state’s catalyst sectors – corporate, technology and manufacturing. The three sectors account for roughly one quarter of Georgia’s employment base, pay well above the median wage, and lead to demand for products and services, resulting in jobs in supporting sectors. One support sector, transportation, warehousing and utilities, has added only 700 jobs in the first three quarters of 2019 despite the growth of e-commerce.
“But what about future prospects for transportation? E-commerce is not the entire story,” Dhawan said. “The health of the sector is also tied to activities at the port of Savannah and its network of warehouses. A slowing growth rate of tonnage generated at the port and a record high proportion of empty containers on outbound ships means fewer trips from warehouses to the port, less demand for storage and fewer jobs.”
Savannah exports are mostly manufactured products – cars from the Kia plant in LaGrange, paper and pulp products from Albany-area mills, automotive machinery from Athens and Gainesville, and industrial carpeting from Dalton.
“If the global slowdown, coupled with a strong dollar, reduces demand for Georgia exports, we will produce less, which will show up in the performance of the state’s manufacturing sector and employment growth in the Savannah metro area,” said Dhawan. “The global growth climate is so bad that Savannah-based Gulfstream announced it will lay off 362 people at its main facility in coming weeks. Loss of these high paying jobs is never good for the metro area where they happen.”
With the current economic expansion in its 10th year, the business cycle is maturing, and job quality is deteriorating, according to the forecaster. For example, in 2014 Georgia added 128,100 jobs of which 40 percent were in high-paying catalyst sectors. In 2018, when Georgia added 89,000 jobs the proportion of catalyst jobs had plunged to 12 percent.
According to Dhawan, the chance of an upsurge in total job creation is low for the coming six to eight quarters.
“Chalk it up to the ongoing global slowdown in Europe and Latin America, coupled with our trade spat with China and a weakening domestic investment climate. Global and domestic headwinds are buffeting Georgia’s catalyst sectors, making for an overall lower future growth path.”
Highlights from the Economic Forecasting Center’s Report for Georgia and Atlanta
- Georgia employment will add 72,200 jobs (13,200 premium jobs) in 2019, gain 49,700 jobs (8,900 premium) in 2020 and increase by 45,900 (8,900 premium) in 2021.
- Nominal personal income will grow 5.0 percent in 2019, 4.9 percent in 2020 and 4.7 percent in 2021.
- Atlanta will add 51,200 jobs (10,000 premium positions) in 2019, moderate to 38,100 jobs (7,800 premium) in 2020 and 34,300 jobs (7,300 premium) in 2021.
- Atlanta housing permitting activity will fall 16.4 percent in 2019, decline 6.9 percent in 2020 and fall another 5.5 percent in 2021.
ATLANTA–A maturing business cycle, the ongoing global slowdown, and the U.S.-China trade spat are fostering a deteriorating business investment climate, and a slowdown in job growth has made consumers wary of spending, according to Rajeev Dhawan of the Economic Forecasting Center at Georgia State University’s Robinson College of Business.
“Investments are always a risky bet. And as the amount of uncertainty rises, investment spending is the first to suffer,” Dhawan wrote in his “Forecast of the Nation,” released today (Nov. 20, 2019).
The Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, at its highest level since 1997, has been extremely elevated for the past 18 months. Dhawan attributes the uncertainty in no small part to the imposition of tariffs by the world’s two largest trading partners, the U.S. and China, on each other’s exports.
“Although there are other trade skirmishes [between Japan and Korea, the ongoing Brexit saga, the Catalonia secession in Spain, and even the September missile attack on Saudi oil facilities] the U.S.-China trade spat takes center stage.”
The forecaster posits that as management of U.S.-based global companies consider moving factories out of China and undoing supply chains they spent decades establishing, “their primary focus is on the vexing issue of building new supply chains and not on expanding existing business capacity, i.e. hiring.”
The fallout is readily apparent in investment growth rates. Business investment declined 3.0 percent in the third quarter of 2019, after dropping 1.0 in the previous quarter, which was a dramatic contrast to the first half of 2018, when investment grew 8.4 percent following the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017. Two other factors, or shocks, contributed to weak investment – reduced fracking investment due to falling oil prices, and the impact of the March 2019 grounding of the Boeing 737 MAX on high tech manufacturing. Looking forward, the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Index is below 50, signaling future contraction in the industrial sector.
As for consumer confidence, a 10-point market drop since Aug. 2019 could signal a consumption growth slowdown. The last three Federal Reserve rate cuts should have boosted consumption by lowering interest rates for car loans and on new or refinanced mortgages. However, Oct. 2019 vehicle sales of 16.5 million units were much lower than the average 17.0 million units sold the previous three months.
Damage from the last few quarters of deficient investment growth will be evident in subpar GDP growth, less than 1.5 percent on average in the coming quarters. And Dhawan characterizes business investment equipment growth as “nonexistent” until Boeing’s woes end in mid-2020.
“As growth drops well below the 1.8 percent growth potential, the Fed will be forced to cut rates several times in early 2020, most likely during the March and June meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee,” Dhawan said.
Even with these cuts, Dhawan anticipates GDP growth to drop to 2.3 percent in 2019, then decline to 1.5 percent in 2020 and improve to 1.8 percent in 2021.
“The election will be over by 2021, hopefully, and no matter who is in the White House, businesses can plan again with somewhat more certainty than at present,” Dhawan said.
Highlights from the Economic Forecasting Center’s National Report
- Overall GDP growth will be 2.3 percent in 2019, 1.5 percent in 2020 and 1.8 percent in 2021.
- Investment growth will be 2.2 percent in 2019, 0.3 percent in 2020 and 2.5 percent in 2021. Monthly job gains will be 165,300 in 2019, drop to 90,600 in 2020 and rise to 94,700 in 2021.
- Housing starts will average 1.256 million in 2019, 1.215 million in 2020 and 1.220 million in 2021. Vehicle sales will average 16.9 million in 2019, 15.8 million in 2020 and 15.5 million in 2021.
- The 10-year bond rate will average 2.1 percent in 2019 and 2020, then rise to 2.7 percent in 2021.
The old saying, “an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure,” most definitely applies to any business owner that believes he or she will someday want to sell his or her business. The bottom line is that every business owner has to transition out of ownership at some point. In a recent Inc. article, “Four Mistakes That Could Lower Your Business’s Value and Weaken Its Salability,” author Bob House explores 4 mistakes that could spell trouble for business owners looking to sell.
No doubt House explores some excellent points in his article, such as that you should always have what he calls, “a selling mindset.” The reason this mindset is potentially invaluable for a business owner is that when operating in this way, sellers are essentially forced to stay on their toes.
Or as House writes, “a selling mindset encourages continual innovation, growth, and investment, helping your business stay ahead of the competition and at the top of its potential.” Having a “selling mindset” means that business owners have no choice but to perform periodic reality checks and access the strengths and weaknesses of their businesses.
Mistake #1 Poor Record Keeping
For House, poor record-keeping tops the list of big mistakes that business owners need to address. As House points out, both potential buyers and brokers will want to examine your books for the last few years. The odds are excellent that before anyone buys your business, they will look very closely at every aspect of your financials, ranging from your sales history to your operating costs.
Mistake #2 Failure to Innovate
The next potential mistake that business owners need to avoid is a failure to innovate. House notes that a lack of tech-savviness could make your business less attractive to prospective buyers. The simple fact is that virtually every business is now impacted in some way by its online presence, whether it is the quality of that presence or lack of it altogether.
For House, a failure to maintain an active online presence could be associated with a failure to innovate. Even if your company is innovative, if you do not maintain a coherent and robust online presence, this could portray your company in a negative light.
Mistake #3 Unstable Workforce
House also feels that having an unstable workforce could spell trouble for your business’s value and negatively impact its salability. Most prospective buyers will not be very eager to buy a business that they know has a lot of employee turnover. In general, new business owners crave stability. Attracting and keeping great employees could make all the difference when it comes time to sell your business.
Mistake #4 Delayed Investments
The final factor that House notes as a potential issue for those looking to sell their business is delaying investments and improvements. House states that it is important for owners to continue to invest even if they know they are going to sell. Investing in your business can help it expand, grow and showcase its potential future growth.
Another excellent way to prevent making mistakes that could interfere with your ability to sell your business is to begin working with a business broker. A top-notch broker knows what mistakes you should avoid. This experience will not only save you countless headaches but also help you preserve the value of your business.
The post Key Mistakes that Could Impact Your Sale appeared first on Deal Studio – Automate, accelerate and elevate your deal making.
Are you a business owner who is interested in selling? If so, there are some strategies you should undoubtedly use. At the top of the list is the all-important offering memorandum. The offering memorandum, often referred to as a selling memorandum, is a straightforward but highly effective way to help you obtain the highest possible selling price.
Shaping the Executive Summary
The offering memorandum must be factual. However, at the same time, this memorandum allows for a bit of business promotion and selling, which can be included in the executive summary portion of the document. After all, potential buyers will want to know more about your business and why buying it would be a savvy decision.
In short, the executive summary section of the offering memorandum goes over the highlights of your company. It should include an outline of several key factors. Everything from an outline of the ownership and management structure, description of the business and financial highlights to a general review of your company’s products and/or services should all be covered. Additional points to include would be variables, such as information about your market, and the reason that the business is for sale.
Your executive summary, simply stated, is extremely important. A coherent and compelling executive summary will motivate prospective buyers to learn more. In short, you want the executive summary of your offering memorandum to shine. It should capture the attention and the imagination of anyone that reads it.
Other Essential Elements to Include
Some elements are absolutely a must to have in your offering memorandum. An overview of your company and its history as well as its markets and products are all good places to begin your offering memorandum. Other key elements ranging from distribution, customers or clients and the competition should also be included.
Factors such as management, financials and growth strategies should not be overlooked, as many prospective investors may flip to those sections first. Finally, be sure to include any competitive advantages you may have as well as a well-written conclusion and exhibits. The more polished and professional your offering memorandum, the better off you’ll be.
An easy way to improve the overall quality of your offering memorandum is to work with a seasoned business broker. A professional business broker knows what information should be included in your offering memorandum. He or she will also know what not to include. Remember that your offering memorandum may be the first point of contact between you and many prospective buyers. You’ll only get one chance to make a first impression.
The post Exploring the Offering Memorandum appeared first on Deal Studio – Automate, accelerate and elevate your deal making.
Every year many great deals, deals that would have otherwise gone through, are undone due to a failure to properly use and follow confidentiality agreements. Not adhering to this essential contract can lead to a myriad of problems. Employees discover a business is going to be sold and quit, competitors learn the business is for sale, or key customers learn of the potential sale and take their business elsewhere. Such issues can block a sale from successfully going through. Maintaining confidentiality throughout the sales process is of paramount importance.
Business buyers and sellers should fully embrace confidentiality agreements, often referred to as a non-disclosure agreements. Among the many and diverse benefits of working with a business broker is that business brokers know how to properly use confidentiality agreements and what they should contain.
Sellers who use a confidentiality agreement are protected from a prospective buyer disclosing confidential information during the sales process. Originally, such agreements were used to prevent prospective buyers from letting the world know that this business was for sale. Today, these contracts have evolved and now cover an array of potential seller concern such as ensuring that a prospective buyer doesn’t disclose proprietary information, trade secrets or key information they learned during the sales process.
Every business and every situation is different. As a result, confidentiality agreements must be tailored to each business and each situation. A solid confidentiality agreement should include, first and foremost, what areas are to be covered by the agreement, i.e., specifying what is and is not confidential. Other areas to be addressed include how confidential information will be shared and marked, the remedy for breaches of confidentiality, the terms of the agreement such as how long the agreement is to remain in force.
One key area in a confidentiality agreement is that the prospective buyer agree not to hire any key people away from the selling company.
When it comes to selling a business, few factors are as critical as establishing and maintaining confidentiality. The last thing any business wants is for its confidential information to land in the hands of a key competitor. Business brokers understand the value of maintaining confidentiality and know what steps to take to ensure that it is maintained throughout the sales process.